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Old 07-12-2018, 03:48 AM   #811
snap0964
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Originally Posted by hayseed View Post
Correct.. & the Aussie Gooberment doesn't have big Budget Surplus to help us ride it out this Time..
I reckon We're in for a Hard Landing, next Time..
ScoMo and Friedy might deliver a surplus come 2Apr - too little too late I'd think, the damage will already be done. But then they might be doing a Wayne Swan, or it might end up a belated April fool joke.

I've got a good idea - let's put in a Mining Tax - we'll rake the $$$ in
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:00 AM   #812
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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ScoMo and Friedy might deliver a surplus come 2Apr - too little too late I'd think, the damage will already be done. But then they might be doing a Wayne Swan, or it might end up a belated April fool joke.

I've got a good idea - let's put in a Mining Tax - we'll rake the $$$ in
Important to distinguish between a Government deficit/surplus for a fiscal year and total Government debt accumulated over several years.

Politicians will try and confuse the two to make themselves look good.

Government debt (the amount we have to pay back) was at $174.5 billion in September 2013. Government debt is now about $341 billion. So both major parties have run up this debt.

Is Government debt a good thing or a bad thing?

Ask 5 different economists you will get 6 different answers.

IMHO the housing bubble is deflating. How fast and far it will deflate is the reason this thread is still going.....
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Old 07-12-2018, 11:14 AM   #813
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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IMHO the housing bubble is deflating. How fast and far it will deflate is the reason this thread is still going.....
Potentially, things could get ugly imo.

Risk for small business is especially horrendous.

And the government is making that risk worse and worse. Electricity prices through the roof. Taxes upon taxes, mostly crazily levied on inputs. Red tape exploding. Green tape exploding even worse.
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Old 07-12-2018, 11:54 AM   #814
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Potentially, things could get ugly imo.

Risk for small business is especially horrendous.

And the government is making that risk worse and worse. Electricity prices through the roof. Taxes upon taxes, mostly crazily levied on inputs. Red tape exploding. Green tape exploding even worse.
I'm in small business 20 years now, it's always "swings and roundabouts" with the economy you have to ride it out.

Our governments have some levers they can pull which effect Australias economy, including housing. Australia is a small player in the world economy. Our economy is influenced more by factors outside the Australian Governments control.IMHO
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Old 08-12-2018, 03:19 AM   #815
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Important to distinguish between a Government deficit/surplus for a fiscal year and total Government debt accumulated over several years.Politicians will try and confuse the two to make themselves look good.
That's why ScoMo is crowing it'll be the first surplus in over 10 yrs.
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Government debt (the amount we have to pay back) was at $174.5 billion in September 2013. Government debt is now about $341 billion. So both major parties have run up this debt.
I thought the overall debt now was estimated to be closer to $500 billion.
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IMHO the housing bubble is deflating. How fast and far it will deflate is the reason this thread is still going.....
Well Stuart Wemyss seems to think otherwise, he has been pretty accurate in the past, https://www.prosolution.com.au/calli...e526c8e9e59ac7
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Old 08-12-2018, 03:46 AM   #816
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Yep it might be a budget surplus but we are still about $500 billion in the hole.

Low rates are very good for me. Not sure it works for everyone else or country though.

These idiots only care about politics though rather than make things better for ordinary people.
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Old 08-12-2018, 07:08 AM   #817
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Low rates are very good for me. Not sure it works for everyone else or country though. .
If rates go up, spending will likely go down, which is no good for the economy. Would likely also cause an increase in govt spending (dole, subsidies etc).

It makes no sense that Australia has some of the highest rates in the world for utilities etc.
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Old 08-12-2018, 08:10 AM   #818
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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It makes no sense that Australia has some of the highest rates in the world for utilities etc.
It’s because we are willing to cop it!.. “she’ll be right mate”, off to work we go!
Have a whinge down the pub over a beer about it, (or on a forum!)... and that’s as far as it goes!
We are a nation of friggin masochists, I swear!
Meanwhile the “elected ones” pull their snouts out of their troughs just long enough to vote “aye” to some BULL **** motion that benefits either themselves or friggin minority factions!
Watch France this coming weekend.... This is going to be scary stuff!!
But at least they have the balls to stand up to their government and say “enoughs enough”!!
It’ll NEVER happen in Oz though, because we somehow enjoy being bent over and reamed!!
Pura Vida...
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Old 08-12-2018, 11:30 AM   #819
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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It’s because we are willing to cop it!.. “she’ll be right mate”, off to work we go!
Have a whinge down the pub over a beer about it, (or on a forum!)... and that’s as far as it goes!
We are a nation of friggin masochists, I swear!
Meanwhile the “elected ones” pull their snouts out of their troughs just long enough to vote “aye” to some BULL **** motion that benefits either themselves or friggin minority factions!
Watch France this coming weekend.... This is going to be scary stuff!!
But at least they have the balls to stand up to their government and say “enoughs enough”!!
It’ll NEVER happen in Oz though, because we somehow enjoy being bent over and reamed!!
Pura Vida...
Enjoy the prostate massage on behalf of the Government, makes the finger experience at the doctor much easier
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Old 08-12-2018, 12:39 PM   #820
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Originally Posted by Charliewool View Post
It’s because we are willing to cop it!.. “she’ll be right mate”, off to work we go!
Have a whinge down the pub over a beer about it, (or on a forum!)... and that’s as far as it goes!
We are a nation of friggin masochists, I swear!
Meanwhile the “elected ones” pull their snouts out of their troughs just long enough to vote “aye” to some BULL **** motion that benefits either themselves or friggin minority factions!
Watch France this coming weekend.... This is going to be scary stuff!!
But at least they have the balls to stand up to their government and say “enoughs enough”!!
It’ll NEVER happen in Oz though, because we somehow enjoy being bent over and reamed!!
Pura Vida...
I don't think rioting is the answer.
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Old 08-12-2018, 01:47 PM   #821
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Enjoy the prostate massage on behalf of the Government, makes the finger experience at the doctor much easier
Finger?
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Old 08-12-2018, 01:53 PM   #822
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Finger?
Tuck your knees up and face the wall

In she goes!
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:10 PM   #823
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Yeah utilities arent the cheapest, im not going to elaborate on that and open a can of worms. But technology has come leaps and bounds making things cheaper to be more energy efficient. For example a 35w downlight kit costs $6 wholesale, but an 8w led down light costs $8 wholesale. So the immediate cost is slightly more, but for the added life span of the led fitting youre looking at 5 or 6 replacement halogen dichroics over a few years and the extra power consumption, so cheaping out in the short term costs more in the long run. Granted a house with downlights has more then one, but that means the savings multiply. Its just being proactive not making yourself sound like a victim.
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:18 PM   #824
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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I don't think rioting is the answer.
I never said rioting was the answer!
I see their government has back peddled pretty smartly on the proposed diesel tax though?... Power of the people?
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Old 02-01-2019, 01:44 PM   #825
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/home...id=mailsignout

Hmm..back in 08 we had the GFC to blame for the short term cooling of the housing market, there is no financial crisis now and were seeing bigger falls.

I think the reduction of foreign investment has brought reality back into the equation.
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Old 03-01-2019, 07:05 PM   #826
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/home...id=mailsignout

Hmm..back in 08 we had the GFC to blame for the short term cooling of the housing market, there is no financial crisis now and were seeing bigger falls.

I think the reduction of foreign investment has brought reality back into the equation.
Essentially the same thing as the GFC has happened. Money lending has become tighter so less people buying. I believe there have been changed to interest only loans again to slow the house prices dropping.
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Old 04-01-2019, 11:56 AM   #827
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Essentially the same thing as the GFC has happened.
Without the hysteria which is my point, things are worse now despite the lack of media attention that the GFC received.
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Old 04-01-2019, 11:59 AM   #828
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Let’s not forget the banking royal commission and the fact that banks have been forced to re write their lending criteria, and lvr’s. Can’t say there is no financial crisis when there actually is.
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Old 04-01-2019, 12:05 PM   #829
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Anybody who purchased in the last two years must be crapping bricks
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Old 04-01-2019, 01:58 PM   #830
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Anybody who purchased in the last two years must be crapping bricks
Not everyone. Property prices rose 8.2% in this area in 2018. Other regional areas such as bendigo and ballarat were similar. Regional areas are doing ok, and some of the smaller capitals. Its mostly melb and syd copping it.

That’s not to say those rises won’t decrease, but the experts are saying some of those outside the big 2 won’t go backwards, just go neutral at worst.

Syd and melb should decrease because they were so overpriced anyway.
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Old 04-01-2019, 02:15 PM   #831
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Anybody who purchased in the last two years must be crapping bricks
Those who over extended themselves, thats life.
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Old 04-01-2019, 02:58 PM   #832
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Without the hysteria which is my point, things are worse now despite the lack of media attention that the GFC received.
During the GFC the government stepped in and garenteed loans so the money would keep flowing.

At this point in time and after the royal commission money has been tightened (personally this is a good thing). If the money dried up during the GFC then we would have seen the same thing happen as now...probably worse.
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Old 04-01-2019, 03:14 PM   #833
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The whole housing market debate about the current climate sort of falls into the category of people who annoy me and buy stuff then complain because they keep shopping afterwards and complain when what they bought goes on sale. If you need somewhere to live and have the means to purchase and plan to be there a while, its just a purchase. Markets affect people more who are using it as an investment. Buy sell kind of stuff. I am pretty sure the rental market isnt going to deflate as quickly as property prices. So there is still some merit in buying if you plan to live there. I lucked out to a degree being a fool at 25 buying my house because the market isnt going to see a loss as big as the appreciation my area has seen in the past 7 years. I have no plans to sell because i live there.
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Old 04-01-2019, 04:51 PM   #834
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Some one is always whinging about something in the housing market.

I bought my first house at 17% interest rates.
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Old 04-01-2019, 05:43 PM   #835
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Some one is always whinging about something in the housing market.

I bought my first house at 17% interest rates.
Sure the interest was high, but they were so much cheaper to buy compared to the average wage. So you were still much better off.
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Old 04-01-2019, 05:50 PM   #836
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Sure the interest was high, but they were so much cheaper to buy compared to the average wage. So you were still much better off.
100%.

4% on $500k + is considerably more than when interest rates were near 20%
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Old 05-01-2019, 11:03 AM   #837
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Another risk people forget about is that if the value of the property falls lower than than the mortgage then the bank will want some cash. There will be nowhere to lend this from (other than friends or relos) and the bank will forclose the mortgage.
Falls were always on the cards and should have happened 10 years ago but shortsighted policies are now being felt.
There will be a dead cat bounce in a year or so and the big correction around 2022-2023.
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Old 05-01-2019, 01:21 PM   #838
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

Politicians should stop fiddling let the market burn and it will eventually put its own fires out.

Hey I got an idea.

The family home is not included in the asset test for the old age pension.

For a married couple the threshold is a little under $400,000. After that there is a sliding scale of reduction until the pension is no longer available.

So why not include the value of the family home in the asset test?

This will mean that oldies living in a huge home worth $$$ would be forced to sell and move into something smaller, thus opening up the market with more supply of family type homes and therefore reduce prices.

If this seems a bit onerous, the asset limit could be varied or how about we introduce a sliding discount scale on the % $$$? The longer they are on the pension, the lower the discount % becomes.
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Old 05-01-2019, 01:35 PM   #839
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

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Another risk people forget about is that if the value of the property falls lower than than the mortgage then the bank will want some cash. There will be nowhere to lend this from (other than friends or relos) and the bank will forclose the mortgage.

Provide the payments are up to date, I reckon you'd be right...
The last thing a bank wants to do is Write Money Off..

However, If you get behind......
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Old 05-01-2019, 02:46 PM   #840
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Default Re: Australia housing bubble

You’re right, hayseed. A mortgage is different to a margin loan. The bank will not demand extra cash if the value of a property falls below the loan amount. As long as the borrower is meeting their repayments there would be no issue.
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