Covid 19 - - Page 497

**GasoLane** · 14-09-2021, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Non smokers get lung cancer, not sure what percentile, but non smoking confined space welders would be on par with non welding smokers, that's for COPD, etc.
But I just believe smokers get belted from pillar to post, not trans fat eating folk with major health issues, or sugary soft drink guzzlers, its all harmful, but that's life, but I am supposed to start chemo next Tuesday, and Monday I go in for an education seminar about my treatment, I will find out all the correlations between smokers and non smokers, if it's available!

I will post it here on AFF, but it will be biased towards the Government to justify tobacco tax, I do not trust this Government one bit, but to always blame one group is not justified considering the damage alcohol does to non smoking drinkers,

I really don't know what else to say??

That's good as we're starting to wander off topic.

slowsnake · 14-09-2021, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GasoLane

That's good as we're starting to wander off topic.

That was it, I just have nothing to add!...OK......

Cheers Billy

Itsme · 14-09-2021, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

We had a positive case in one of our Sydney sites . Person was isolated after positive test, and everyone on site that day also has been tested. Fortunately all came back negative, which is rather surprising given its an indoor factory / warehouse type environment, and a lot of common touch points on machinery. Anyway, we've been trying to contact NSW Health for further guidance, but can't even get through, as in the phone has been engaged for the past 48 hours. Crazy.

Someone here mentioned a similar experience with Vic Health, but it seems both NSW and Vic are struggling. Surely lines can be diverted to health departments in other states for assistance? It can't be THAT different from state to state regarding workplace practices?

Don't be lulled into thinking that others who tested negative will be ok, at my work it was initially 1 positive case which has grown to 3 in 8 days. 24 members still half way through 14 day quarantine period and we are praying it does not spread among them which means there could be more possible undetected infections.
It took Vic DHHS about 5 days to respond to our company requests for guidance and answers which is now an ongoing consultation.

Cheers

zilo · 14-09-2021, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itsme

.. 24 members still half way through 14 day quarantine period and we are praying it does not spread among them which means there could be more possible undetected infections.

Cheers

Mehh...might as well just suck it up, its headed your way.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 14-09-2021, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’ve got to say, hayfever and a face mask do not play well together.

Meant to respond to this one earlier, but got sidetracked.

I've found that my hay-fever has not been quite as bad this year. Whilst there could be many factors influencing that, I wonder if wearing a mask whilst outside walking has reduced my exposure to the airborne pollens?

Might have to continue wearing a mask during future spring months!

Citroënbender · 14-09-2021, 11:17 PM

I’ve been more physically active than the last year. Plus in and out of old roof cavities beating on stuff, so the allergen sources are right up there. The mask pushes moustache hairs up my nose as well.

I try to minimise use of antihistamines as they all seem to affect perception and reaction times for me - but needing to have business conversations with people I don’t know, it’s not a good look to be a bucket of dribbling snot.

Great to hear others aren’t having it so bad.

Itsme · 14-09-2021, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilo

Mehh...might as well just suck it up, its headed your way.

Most likely it will or I might have had it already without knowing it since I'm living in a hot spot area but you should realise it will eventually come your way to Tassie; make sure you are vaccinated while you got time.

slowsnake · 15-09-2021, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilo

Mehh...might as well just suck it up, its headed your way.

I always wondered if you were real or maybe a computer virus...

But your real, just goes to show that it takes " bipeds " of all kinds to make this world turn!....

That's a compliment by the way, enjoy it while it's at the top of the thread!

Cheers Billy

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 15-09-2021, 10:39 AM

Saw this opinion article today and thought it did a pretty good job of summarising recent discussions in this thread about opening our country back up and the challenges associated with the options available.

Some of the data that is presented in here would need some validation, as I'm not sure of the accuracy of some of it, but nevertheless it seems pretty balanced to me.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...down/100461128

This heading sums it up for me: No option is particularly good

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 15-09-2021, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Hi Russ,

Can you please explain the change from yesterday to today's trendline insofar as yesterday's trendline was "barricade the bunker door":

image

As opposed to today's trend, "Plague? What plague?":

image

TIA.

I see Russ hasn't had the opportunity to respond to your post, FGS, so I hope both you and he don't mind if I offer my opinion, based on my experience with using excel to do data analysis.

The trend line you're seeing is based upon the full data set, so the second chart (yesterday's trend) shows an extra day of data, which is continuing to decrease in magnitude. Therefore the trend line is going to predict what is happening based upon that continuing trend.

Also note that the two trends are also based on different level order polynomials; the trend line from Monday is based on a third order polynomial and yesterday's a fourth order. My take on that is the 3rd order doesn't as easily allow for a peak and decrease in the data as well as a fourth order. We can clearly see that the actual data is starting to flatten out the curve; I'd hazard a guess that the third order polynomial will continue to rise based on that revised data set as opposed to the 4th order which will cater for the easing of numbers.

I suspect Russ has moved to a 4th order poly to better 'fit' the trendline to the actual data. Remember the prediction of the trendline is limited to the capability of the equation used to best fit the actual data.

This page here provides you an idea as to what level capabilities each order poly has in best modelling the actual data set.

Hope that makes some sense?

b0son · 15-09-2021, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

If I had my way I would ban the ****er from my house, but it is my wife's business and she has to follow the directions of her bosses.

Ummm, no? How can they have any say over who you bring into your own home?

**russellw** · 15-09-2021, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Also note that the two trends are also based on different level order polynomials; the trend line from Monday is based on a third order polynomial and yesterday's a fourth order. My take on that is the 3rd order doesn't as easily allow for a peak and decrease in the data as well as a fourth order. We can clearly see that the actual data is starting to flatten out the curve; I'd hazard a guess that the third order polynomial will continue to rise based on that revised data set as opposed to the 4th order which will cater for the easing of numbers.

I suspect Russ has moved to a 4th order poly to better 'fit' the trendline to the actual data. Remember the prediction of the trendline is limited to the capability of the equation used to best fit the actual data.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Hi Russ,

Can you please explain the change from yesterday to today's trendline insofar as yesterday's trendline was "barricade the bunker door":

As opposed to today's trend, "Plague? What plague?":

TIA.

Sorry I missed the question. Yes, the difference as explained by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0 is the shift from 3rd to 4th order polynomials in NSW to reflect the start of a downward trend. Victoria is still on 3rd order and wouldn't change much even if I selected 4th,

The reason to change is that a polynomial trend works best with 'spiky' trends or where there are clearly defined 'shift's in the pattern - thus, as there is no such thing as first order, a pattern with one shift is 2nd order, 2 shifts is 3rd order etc. etc. NSW now has it's 3rd shift which is why the change to 4th order because the 3rd order trend would continue to rise even though the raw data isn't.

Here is NSW from yesterday using 3rd and 4th order polynomial trends:

Trevor 57 · 15-09-2021, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b0son

Ummm, no? How can they have any say over who you bring into your own home?

part of the contract under which she does business - she does have the option of banning him and that option depends on how he behaves next time and that will determine what happens next

**FairmontGS** · 15-09-2021, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

Sorry I missed the question. Yes, the difference as explained by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0 is the shift from 3rd to 4th order polynomials in NSW to reflect the start of a downward trend. Victoria is still on 3rd order and wouldn't change much even if I selected 4th,

The reason to change is that a polynomial trend works best with 'spiky' trends or where there are clearly defined 'shift's in the pattern - thus, as there is no such thing as first order, a pattern with one shift is 2nd order, 2 shifts is 3rd order etc. etc. NSW now has it's 3rd shift which is why the change to 4th order because the 3rd order trend would continue to rise even though the raw data isn't.

Here is NSW from yesterday using 3rd and 4th order polynomial trends:

image

image

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

I see Russ hasn't had the opportunity to respond to your post, FGS, so I hope both you and he don't mind if I offer my opinion, based on my experience with using excel to do data analysis.

The trend line you're seeing is based upon the full data set, so the second chart (yesterday's trend) shows an extra day of data, which is continuing to decrease in magnitude. Therefore the trend line is going to predict what is happening based upon that continuing trend.

Also note that the two trends are also based on different level order polynomials; the trend line from Monday is based on a third order polynomial and yesterday's a fourth order. My take on that is the 3rd order doesn't as easily allow for a peak and decrease in the data as well as a fourth order. We can clearly see that the actual data is starting to flatten out the curve; I'd hazard a guess that the third order polynomial will continue to rise based on that revised data set as opposed to the 4th order which will cater for the easing of numbers.

I suspect Russ has moved to a 4th order poly to better 'fit' the trendline to the actual data. Remember the prediction of the trendline is limited to the capability of the equation used to best fit the actual data.

This page here provides you an idea as to what level capabilities each order poly has in best modelling the actual data set.

Hope that makes some sense?

Many thanks both. I guess I was working on the assumption that the trend was predictive and didn't need a shift of gear to the next phase but I understand better now.

Citroënbender · 15-09-2021, 12:42 PM

Curfew is now lifted for NSW LGAs of concern. This is a great improvement.

On a personal level, it looks like my elderly cousin may soon die in Greater Melbourne. I’m a bit over these Covid-safe funerals, whether streamed or IRL. In another time we would have buried him at sea.

Also good to see: An article on the ABC discussing the reality that achieving 80%x2 Covid vaccination of eligible people, isn’t the simple, meander-down-the-road exercise of incremental gains, the government seemed to be implying.

MITCHAY · 15-09-2021, 01:11 PM

Yeah not a good idea to use Covid as a sickie excuse. I'm assuming they asked for test results and that's where it came undone

https://www.news.com.au/national/jam...d9263315d7caf5

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 15-09-2021, 01:33 PM

Heads-up for anyone in Ballarat:

The ABC understands the city of greater Ballarat will enter lockdown tonight
It's due to an increase in COVID cases, senior state government sources have told the ABC.

Daniel Andrews will hold a press conference shortly.

Citroënbender · 15-09-2021, 01:49 PM

Won’t Jack91 be thrilled.

Work Horse · 15-09-2021, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Heads-up for anyone in Ballarat:

The ABC understands the city of greater Ballarat will enter lockdown tonight
It's due to an increase in COVID cases, senior state government sources have told the ABC.

Daniel Andrews will hold a press conference shortly.

Family-in-law booked at the Chinese in Beechworth last night for 18th celebration.

Got the call booking cancelled, restaurant closed for deep cleaning.

Apparently a positive delivery driver had been through.

**russellw** · 15-09-2021, 02:07 PM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 14th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,587 new cases for Australia and 4 deaths so the CMR is 1.432%.

17 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.681%.

The UK had a lower 26,251 cases yesterday and higher 185 deaths for a CMR of 1.850%.

A lower 141,970 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 1,477 deaths sees CMR at 1.614%.

Other notable points:
Europe passes 57M cases;
Asia passes 73M cases;

New Caledonia (327);
Bermuda (412);
Suriname (649); and
Nicaragua (675);

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Greece and Georgia move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Venezuela and Cabo Verde drop below.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 15-09-2021, 02:08 PM

And some good news for you, Trev:

But the government has announced the lockdown in Shepparton will be lifted from tonight after three days of no new cases.

**russellw** · 15-09-2021, 02:09 PM

NSW/VIC

NSW records 1,261 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 0.9910 (from 0.9769) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve.

VIC records 423 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases slightly to 1.1123 (from 1.1135) while the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 15-09-2021, 02:31 PM

Anyone else finding the myriad of businesses and organisations openly supporting the covid vaccination program as a "way to get back to a normal life" a little grating, especially when, in all likelihood, all those businesses and organisations really care about is they stand to make more money once people are back out doing things (and spending their money) as they normally would?

**Polyal** · 15-09-2021, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Anyone else finding the myriad of businesses and organisations openly supporting the covid vaccination program as a "way to get back to a normal life" a little grating, especially when, in all likelihood, all those businesses and organisations really care about is they stand to make more money once people are back out doing things (and spending their money) as they normally would?

Such is the circle of capitalism life my friend.

I think any additional focus on getting things up and running can only help..everyone is over it.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 15-09-2021, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

Such is the circle of capitalism life my friend.

I think any additional focus on getting things up and running can only help..everyone is over it.

No, not everyone. But I agree that the number who are over it is growing all the time.

I do wonder though, how 'over it' people will be when we open up again, hospitals fill with cases, reducing capacity for other medical services and reducing the number of medical staff available, and things like elective surgeries are impacted. When someone wants to see a doctor or get some medical advice for something that is annoying them or impacting upon their quality of life, and they can't that appointment for months, will they be over that too?

And that's without even taking into account the number of people who will pass away from the disease and the circle of influence on relatives and friends.

Bossxr8 · 15-09-2021, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Anyone else finding the myriad of businesses and organisations openly supporting the covid vaccination program as a "way to get back to a normal life" a little grating, especially when, in all likelihood, all those businesses and organisations really care about is they stand to make more money once people are back out doing things (and spending their money) as they normally would?

Pure self interest. But I don't blame them though, these lockdowns have completely screwed them.

How long will it take for them to rail against the potential vaccine passport to gain entry, when business doesn't return to pre-covid levels cause groups no longer want to have group bookings cause 1 or 2 aren't vaxxed. Not to mention the people who no longer want to go out in crowded areas due to covid. I don't see business returning to pre-covid levels for quite a while.

They will soon change their tune when it hurts their hip pocket.

That's where the rapid testing needs to come in, so people aren't being discriminated against if they aren't/can't be vaxxed.

It's kind of ironic that a double vaxxed person who might have covid, and doesn't know, is ok to enter a venue, but an un-vaxxed person who is covid free isn't.

**russellw** · 15-09-2021, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Saw this opinion article today and thought it did a pretty good job of summarising recent discussions in this thread about opening our country back up and the challenges associated with the options available.

Some of the data that is presented in here would need some validation, as I'm not sure of the accuracy of some of it, but nevertheless it seems pretty balanced to me.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...down/100461128

This heading sums it up for me: No option is particularly good

The underlying data looks good to me as a lot of what they reference comes form the excellent report from the AIHW.

The highlight for me:

The Grattan Institute has suggested lifting lockdowns only when 80 per cent of the entire population has been double vaccinated (not 70-80 per cent of people aged 16+ as the NSW and national plans envisage, which amounts to 56-64 per cent of the population).
Grattan believes its plan would cost 2,000-3,000 lives per year; a cost it believes the public would accept.

I've been saying that for awhile and their 2-3k number aligns pretty much with what we'd see if we could mirror the Israeli experience where my models show about 2,868 deaths in the first year.

At the UK level (90% of 16+ but only 66.67% of whole population) it wouldn't be sustainable as I said yesterday, with my model showing something like 13k deaths in the first year.

The message is simple from my POV. Open too early and accept the high case and mortality numbers or wait until vaccination levels are higher although I don't see that we could ever reach 80% of whole population when we have some 4M (or 15%) of the population under 12 years of age so that would mean that only 5% of the 12+ age group would be able to not get vaccinated.

Poetic Justice · 15-09-2021, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

No, not everyone. But I agree that the number who are over it is growing all the time.

I do wonder though, how 'over it' people will be when we open up again, hospitals fill with cases, reducing capacity for other medical services and reducing the number of medical staff available, and things like elective surgeries are impacted. When someone wants to see a doctor or get some medical advice for something that is annoying them or impacting upon their quality of life, and they can't that appointment for months, will they be over that too?

And that's without even taking into account the number of people who will pass away from the disease and the circle of influence on relatives and friends.

Do you suppose we stay locked down for the next couple of years?

Bossxr8 · 15-09-2021, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Saw this opinion article today and thought it did a pretty good job of summarising recent discussions in this thread about opening our country back up and the challenges associated with the options available.

Some of the data that is presented in here would need some validation, as I'm not sure of the accuracy of some of it, but nevertheless it seems pretty balanced to me.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...down/100461128

This heading sums it up for me: No option is particularly good

We aren't going to eliminate it, that ship has sailed. If anything it's going to spread more once the borders open up. It's inevitable. We can't stop it. Even if we had 100% vaccination rates. People still get it and spread it, and some people will still get sick and die from it. We just have to live with it now, it's never going away. Not unless they can find a proper cure.

Itsme · 15-09-2021, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

part of the contract under which she does business - she does have the option of banning him and that option depends on how he behaves next time and that will determine what happens next

With covid I would not be allowing anyone in my house, quite sure Vic DHHS guidelines regarding Covid would make that part of the contract non binding under these conditions.
My daughter is a youth care worker and since covid her working conditions has changed dramatically with regards to client contact.