All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spirals’ for big oil and big autos

[Junkyard-Dog]

There simply isn't enough oil to allow everybody on Earth to have a vehicle powered by fossil fuels. We're going to be in dire need of an alternative pretty soon.

[DOOZIE DAISY]

Have to fire up the foot falcon or drag the pushy out of the shed...

[mr smith]

Yea sure, what happens when we have a major black out especially with the extra demands on the grid.
All this new tech is just BS.

[mwb235]

Originally Posted by DOOZIE DAISY

Have to fire up the foot falcon or drag the pushy out of the shed...

Where's Fred Flintstone when you need him?

[Eaturbo]

It's coming but not that soon. Diesel is now banned on new car sales in some countries already with more countries joining them in 2020. Next series Landcruiser 300 is supposed to be petrol only with hybrid. Things are only going to head one way and that's electric or at least hybrid. I drove a new Camry hybrid the other day and wow what an amazing car.

[Sprintey]

Is this shift likely to be driven by policy? - yes
If driven by policy, is this misallocation of capital? - probably
Are there constraints on materials? yes, lithium, cobalt are not infinite
Are there constraints on energy in Australia? yes, we are shutting coal plants, without an effective replacement: where is the strategic power generation vision?
How will these vehicles be powered? - appr half of China's new electric supply will be coal
Will this stop CO2? - not if that much generation is going to be coal
How will batteries be recycled? Don't know
Does a new electric car have to come with autonomous driving and connectivity? - No
Will they come with these features? - Yes
Will you have a choice not to have these features? - No, the '1984' pack is mandatory
Will this result in less reliance on importing oil? - yes, for every country that does it
Is this strategically advisable - yes, less external reliance on oil
Who has all the lithium and cobalt then? worth a research
Will an old Ford I6 run on E85 or E100? - yes, for sure
Do you have to like country music to be a Moonshiner? -

[Crazy Dazz]

The fundamental problem is that tertiary education has become a cash-cow for anybody that wants to call themselves a "University."
Sucking at this humongus government teat are the so-called "academics," who now days are mostly nothing more than parasites. And its a huge mutual-admiration society, where the measure of success is getting published. So doing any actually valuable research or (heaven forbid) teaching students doesn't count for anything, you need to get your name in print, and more and more this is becoming about mainstream media.

And unfortunately its driven by the fallacy of discovery.
Put simply, somebody who conducts thorough and valid research that produces no result or proves no link, gets no publicity or recognition. Similarly, somebody that adds to existing knowledge or understanding, gets very little.
But sample 10 ten people, and claim to have proven a link between brain tumours and masturbation, and you will make headlines.

It's additionally unfortunate that with more and more recognition being given to "celebrity academics" who achieve mainstream recognition, that the sexier or more publicly controversial your theory, the more recognition you receive.

When considering the latest offerings, I am reminded of the classic Monty Python sketch, where they strive to outdo each other with their tales of hardship: "We had to work 27 hour days, got to bed at 5am, woke up 3 hours before we went to sleep, walked 100 miles up a mountain to the arsenic mine where we paid a shilling a day for the privilege of being beaten."
So to academics must strive to make their claims and theories more outlandish than those published last month:
"All fossil fuels will have completely disappeared by last year, and we will be forced to run to work barefoot, and naked, powered by miniature nuclear-reactors plugged directly into our ani."

[Sprintey]

Top post Dazz, also reminds me of the Goodies: "9 out of 10 doctors recommend Goodies brand product..... (mind you, we had such trouble finding those 9....)".

When will the Uni/Education bubble burst? & Educating for what, you should see the trouble the young near-Grads have getting internships even, let alone jobs in their fields, breaks my heart. Was similar for grads in the 90's.

You'd probably delight in the Chomsky-bot, or the MIT guys that created a random scientific paper generator, that... actually started to get published! Look that stuff up, hilarious.

[Jastel]

Not likely in that time limit.

I have Space books saying we would be living on the moon in the year 2000...

Is it technically possible...YES...is it happening...NO...will it happen...probably one day.

Some other predictions that were wrong

The Earth is Flat

The Sun revolves around the Earth

Paperless Office

NO Child living in Poverty

Millennium Bug

The End of the World...this Saturday is their next bet.

[OzriderXR8]

I watched a doco recently that showed a dry lake bed in Bolivia or similar at 5000ft altitude. Apparently it has enough Lithium in it to power current demand for about a 1000 years, factor in electric cars etc. they reckon this single lake can supply demand for 100's of years.

And battery technology is only in it's infancy.....

I'll bet the oil companies and oil producing countries already own huge chunks of it.

'Cars That Rock' with Brian Johnson from AC/DC (the new guy ) showed a VW concept Hybrid that can do 300 mile to the imperial gallon.....electric with a small diesel. That's around 1 litre per 100klms.

10 years from now we'll have Hybrids that can do that as production cars.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Junkyard-Dog

There simply isn't enough oil to allow everybody on Earth to have a vehicle powered by fossil fuels. We're going to be in dire need of an alternative pretty soon.

That's funny, I heard a similar story around the time of the first gulf war

[ozrunner]

Crazy Dazz summed it up very well.

So an academic numb nut reckons all fossil fuel cars will be gone in 8 Years. Never in a month of Sundays.

What is wrong with people nowadays, has common sense gone out the window.

WA has huge deposits of Lithium but in true Oz fashion we will dig it up an export it and then pay quadruple for batteries rather than lock it down and manufacture batteries in Oz for export.

The next academic issue will be the disposal of used batteries is causing the earth to turn "flat" .

Oil is the same, there are still MASSIVE deposits worldwide yet to be tapped including Oz so that's not an issue for all of our lifetime and beyond.

[Junkyard-Dog]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

That's funny, I heard a similar story around the time of the first gulf war

Did China have 200 million cars on the road at the time?

[solarite_guy]

Originally Posted by OzriderXR8

I watched a doco recently that showed a dry lake bed in Bolivia or similar at 5000ft altitude. Apparently it has enough Lithium in it to power current demand for about a 1000 years, factor in electric cars etc. they reckon this single lake can supply demand for 100's of years.

And battery technology is only in it's infancy.....

There were 2 principle people working together to invent the first Lithium-Ion battery. A Dr. Goodenough was one of those people.

Currently, he is working with a team at the University of Texas on a battery with performance characteristics which will, for all intents and purposes make Lithium-Ion obsolete. It is a solid state battery which incorporates glass and uses Sodium in place of Lithium. It can use Lithium, but the graphs I've seen Sodium provides better performance.

Along with existing salt mines, we have Oceans and seas with incredible amounts of Sodium.

Advantages of the new Goodenough solid state battery over Lithium-Ion include:

• 3 times the energy density
• Charges in minutes, not hours
• Can discharge at a higher rate, if needed
• Can go through many more charge, discharge cycles
• Will not explode
• Will not catch on fire

I am sure something else beyond that battery will pop up at some point as well.

[solarite_guy]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

The next academic issue will be the disposal of used batteries...

That's another interesting point you made.

At one point I was researching how hybrid car Lithium-Ion batteries are recycled.

I learned, given current technology, there is only a 20% return of what it costs to recycle Lithium in a manner in which we conventionally think. Losing 80% on each recycled battery is not a good business proposition.

I also learned when a Lithium-Ion hybrid battery is no longer useful for a car, it is still 70-80% of what it was when new. There is a company in North America that can re-purpose these batteries. This can include taking Lithium to build batteries for electronic devices (cell phones, Ipads, etc). Another interesting use is to build storage capacity which can charge from solar panels during day for use at night and other dark times, to maintain power continuity and help reduce your dependence on the grid even more. In this case you would build a bank of batteries using fully intact batteries as they are removed from the cars,

[Mercury Bullet]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

That's funny, I heard a similar story around the time of the first gulf war

You're late to the party, I first heard of it in 1972.

At the Eucla BP if I remember :p

Then again in 1982 and the ESP was the last V8 forever.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by aussiblue

Do we believe it?

No won't be happening any time soon.

I remember the 'fuel crisis' of the late 70's early 80's and people saying we will be running out of fuel shortly...40 years later we are still going strong

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

You're late to the party, I first heard of it in 1972.

At the Eucla BP if I remember :p

The Nullarbor nymph came from around there as well didn't she

[simon varley]

passenger car diesel may well disappear as emissions legislation keeps being tightened, and I'm sure petrol will continue to downsize. I think the future will be a mix of different EV strategies including fully electric, plug in hybrid and full hybrid. This will continue to need small IC engines but I think they will become tiny and only used to charge the battery for the electric motors that will power the driveline.

I have no idea what the result for commercial and heavy goods will be. You can't really get much better than diesel, but I certainly would like to see significantly more put on rail and barge.

Interesting thought though on what this means to the oil companies? I wonder really how much of the crude is used for fuel versus plastics, lubricants, gas etc?

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by solarite_guy

I love the way the globalists always come up with these "one size fits all" solutions.

More like a Marxist agenda.

[Chopped]

What nonsense.
We have all seen the future, The Black Pursuit Special, the last of the V8 interceptors. Pretty sure it wasn't electric. Case closed.

[Junkyard-Dog]

https://youtu.be/WlLOe4Ag4Iw

[dunga]

Originally Posted by Junkyard-Dog

https://youtu.be/WlLOe4Ag4Iw

You couldn't possibly script the part where ol mate gets hit in the back of the head by the front wheel .

[Junkyard-Dog]

Originally Posted by dunga

You couldn't possibly script the part where ol mate gets hit in the back of the head by the front wheel .

I'm pretty sure that guy actually died.

edit: I checked and nope.

[aussie muscle]

it's just scaremongering. France isn't even phasing out new ICE cars until 2040, assume no big oil or consumer back-lash pushing it back further.

[roKWiz]

Funny how eurotrash demand we cut all out emissions yet they still rely on nuclear power. It maybe clean technology when its working but when it goes wrong it goes wrong big time.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by aussiblue

Do we believe it?

http://business.financialpost.com/tr...g-the-industry

Let us assume this speculative article was correct. Big oil would still continue as plastics, cosmetics, other oil based chemicals etc will not disappear overnight just because cars are 100% electric powered by non oil produced electricity. This just demonstrates how stupid the people are who conducted this study.

[solarite_guy]

I think the good Professor has been crossing the state border into Oregon and helping himself to the legal marijuana.

[eb2fairmont]

Yeah and petrol was going to be 5 bucks a litre and mining boom was going to go forever.

And that was 3 years ago.

[Maka]

With thanks to AFR -

http://www.afr.com/technology/selfdr...0170508-gw046r

Self-driving electric vehicles to make car ownership vanish

May 9 2017

So if you're sceptical or nervous about the coming age of self-driving cars, consider this incentive: a $20 Uber or Lyft fare could be slashed to $2.

Better yet, it might even be free if the ride provider is, say, a Starbucks autonomous ride-sharing van that's covering the cost of your 40¢ commute by selling you a pricey latte.

Test-driving a Tesla. If you think this is scary, wait until you see the impact of self-driving cars on the economy.
Photo: Bloomberg

And this isn't a vision of the future for today's toddlers, but likely to happen within a decade of the anticipated 2020 rollout of autonomous vehicles.

Those are just some of the provocative predictions in the first report out from RethinkX, an independent think tank focusing on technology's impact on transportation, energy, finance and healthcare.

According to RethinkX, while self-driving vehicles may still seem like a science fair project to many, the technology soon will become so culturally ubiquitous that it will lead to the abandonment of car ownership, a $1 trillion boost in disposable income and a "catastrophic" shift for the oil industry and driver economy.

"Mainstream talk about self-driving cars suggests the big transformation could still be decades out, but it's time to adjust our thinking," says Tony Seba, co-author with James Arbib of Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.

Tech companies such as Alphabet and automakers such as Ford have long been targeting about 2020 for the first commercial rollout of self-driving ride-hailing fleets.

That debut is most likely to happen in select cities where both lawmakers and the public are willing to embrace such a radical shift, and experts believe a national embrace of autonomous vehicles will be slow in coming.

In contrast, RethinkX is predicting an overnight sensation that will be no less transformative than the Model T's erasure of the horse and buggy, the printing press's impact on literacy and one modern tech gadget's remaking of communication.

"When the iPhone came out in 2007, many wondered who would spend hundreds on something called a smartphone, and now we can't imagine our lives without them," says Seba, author of Solar Trillions and Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation. "It's going to be the same with electric AVs. The adoption curve will be super exponential."

Among the study's views of the mobility scene by 2027, or before:

95 per cent of US passenger miles will be served by autonomous electric vehicles owned by companies providing Transportation as a Service (TaaS).
60 per cent of vehicles on the road will be dedicated to that transportation.
The average household will pocket $US5600 ($7600) a year now allocated to gas-powered car ownership by switching to autonomous electric vehicles services.
Not that the view ahead is rosy for all. Disruption looms on many fronts, says the report's authors.

Among those hardest hit will be the millions of Americans who drive for a living, whether they're ride-hailing drivers or truckers.

Oil companies will also take a big hit. Despite the Trump administration's pursuit of pro-oil policies, global demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day in 2020 and drop to 70 million by 2030.

And automakers and related industries – car dealerships, auto parts stores – will suffer or shutter, with car companies in particular likely having to pivot to becoming manufacturers of autonomous electric vehicles and possibly ride-hailing companies as well.

Some automakers are already anticipating such a shift. Ford is not only investing heavily in autonomous car technology but recently bought Chariot, a San Francisco-based ride sharing company. Meanwhile, Travis Kalanick, the chief executive of embattled Uber, has long said that his business model hinges on getting rid of the most costly part of the equation: the driver.

"People simply won't own cars," says Seba, noting that for many people the automobile represents a five-figure investment that is in use roughly 4 per cent of its life. "The Ubers and GMs of the world will own the cars, and they'll be in use constantly, which will drive down the cost of each ride to a point where it will be economically irresistible to consumers."

What could disrupt this coming paradigm shift? A lack of clear rules and regulations, says Seba.

The Trump administration's new Department of Transportation chief, Elaine Chao, has yet to lay out her views on autonomous electric vehicles or comment on a framework of collaborative rules laid out by her Obama administration predecessor, Anthony Foxx.

"If government regulators or lobbyists push back on laying out a clear path for the adoption of autonomous vehicles, that could have an impact," says Seba. "But at most, it would postpone this change. From a national perspective, this new age is pretty inevitable."

USA Today

©Distributed by Tribune Content Agency

I would prefer to keep my private vehicles, even if it costs more lol. The inevitable implications of all this need to be fully laid out before any talk of policy consideration imo.

cheers, Maka