Vfacts February 2020

[jpd80]

It's interesting that once you get past sales of Hilux, Ranger and Triton, sales numbers of utes
really starts to drop off.That makes me wonder if those other brands will ever be more than
a handful of sales.

In other news, Candy's 1400 odd sales last month seems to be boosted by 50% being hybrids,
so I wonder if thats retail buyers or are taxis and police / govco picking them up?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It's interesting that once you get past sales of Hilux, Ranger and Triton, sales numbers of utes
really starts to drop off.That makes me wonder if those other brands will ever be more than
a handful of sales.

In other news, Candy's 1400 odd sales last month seems to be boosted by 50% being hybrids,
so I wonder if thats retail buyers or are taxis and police / govco picking them up?

Camry has always been a fleet darling. The cheaper running cost of the hybrid would assure it as being the preferred option over the petrol version.

Toyota dominate fleet sales. They would offer substantial deals for fleets.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by FASTXR

Some pitiful numbers for some models there.

Can anyone tell me the last time they saw or heard an advertisement for the Fiesta, Focus, Endura, Ecosport or Mondeo?

Ford seems to pump a heap of cash into promoting vehicles such as the Ranger but doesn't spend a cent promoting anything else.

How tf does Ford think think they're going to shift any of these vehicles if no-one knows about them?

I own an MD Mondeo which I think is a fantastic, world-class car and yet I don't recall any kind of advertising for it since it (the MD) was launched in around 2014.

You do know that Fiesta, Mondeo and Ecosport are now discontinued product don't you.

As for Focus it costs Ford too much money to bring them in. In a market (small car) that is dominated by price theres no point in them trying because they can't import cars to sell at a loss. Simple really.


On another note I think we will see some more manufacturers leave Australia in the coming years. We simply have too many brands on offer for our uptake. With the cost of warranty (nearly all been pushed out to 5 years) and the threat of the ACCC cracking down on any manufacturer looking sideways Australia has become very hard to work with from a manufacturers point of view.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Deleted.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It's interesting that once you get past sales of Hilux, Ranger and Triton, sales numbers of utes
really starts to drop off.That makes me wonder if those other brands will ever be more than
a handful of sales.

In other news, Candy's 1400 odd sales last month seems to be boosted by 50% being hybrids,
so I wonder if thats retail buyers or are taxis and police / govco picking them up?

I was about to Google, "Candy Utes" thinking, geez how did I miss that brand, or is your "auto-correct" giving us more info than you'd care to share

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

I was about to Google, "Candy Utes" thinking, geez how did I miss that brand, or is your "auto-correct" giving us more info than you'd care to share

So sorry, I really struggle with autocorrect on my new iPad
it keeps changing words on me bstd thing

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by jpd80

So sorry, I really struggle with autocorrect on my new iPad
it keeps changing words on me bstd thing

Trust me no apology needed, you say iPad problems, you should see my typing on an iPhone with my XL glove-sized hands.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by FTE217

You know which dual cab he boasted about some mines have, apart from hilux, for reliability ? DMax, engines/boxs are great/reliable.

People who actually know and want reliability buy Isuzu. It's funny how Rodeo/ Colorado tanked in sales when the GM motor went in. They were rubbish vehicles but the drivetrain just keeps on going

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Smoke Pursuit

.


On another note I think we will see some more manufacturers leave Australia in the coming years. We simply have too many brands on offer for our uptake. With the cost of warranty (nearly all been pushed out to 5 years) and the threat of the ACCC cracking down on any manufacturer looking sideways Australia has become very hard to work with from a manufacturers point of view.

^^^^^ I Agree, Holden is only the First Domino to fall..
NFI whose next though..

[Franco Cozzo]

I reckon we'll lose Kenworth in the next 5 years, their build rate keeps dropping.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by hayseed

^^^^^ I Agree, Holden is only the First Domino to fall..
NFI whose next though..

I can’t see why brands like peugeot keep going here.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I reckon we'll lose Kenworth in the next 5 years, their build rate keeps dropping.

I reckon IVECO are on shakier ground than PACCAR....

[Sprintey]

Question for those Older/knowledgeable:

how do all these months of contraction compare in the car market with the early 1990s? What kind of a fall from the peak was it back then?

[Sprintey]

Light < $25k: Toyota Yaris (1246), MG 3 (620), Kia Rio (524)

Yaris up on the 900s it's been doing, on runout?

Small < $40k: Toyota Corolla (2520), Hyundai i30 (2152 + 175 Elantra), Kia Cerato (1873)

Where's the Mazda 3?

Medium SUV < $60k: Toyota RAV4 (3375), Mazda CX-5 (1969), Nissan X-Trail (1439)

Wow, the Hybrid RAV. That's the way.

RAM 220 +27.9%


And comment on the car advice article:

"Call me a troglodyte. Call me a neanderthal. I don't care. I purchased new a 2013 Commodore and I have no intention of buying a newer car. The closest thing I would purchase now is a Genesis G70, but I will not. I am going to spend 10's of thousands on rebuilding my 1970 Valiant. Screw you AUS government, screw you foreign car makers. Oh and by the way LNP, I will pay cash to have my cars retromodded. Lots of cash!"

Yeah.

[jpd80]

Sprintey, Mazda 3 sales 1435

[Franco Cozzo]

I'm seeing a lot of those MG3s on the road, they're cheap as too.

It's a mildly successful Chinese light car:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/731365/2019-mg-3-review/

I'd consider it if it didn't come with a gutless naturally aspirated engine.

Also a lot of the newer LDV T90 utes too.

[Sprintey]

Thanks, the 3 has taken quite a fall (or shift in market). Maybe the 'jinba ittai' hasn't rubbed off so well on Australian drivers.

[Sprintey]

I look at the top 10 and nothing really jumps out at me. RAV4 hybrid I suppose, that's the head purchasing rather than the heart. Thinking 'save $$$' on fuel. It's AWD system, dunno if that would be as good as the Terry AWD in snow and ice. And it has a CVT. But the electric part would be cool.

I wish Toyota sold these new over here:

https://www.beforward.jp/toyota/coro...year_from=2015

https://www.beforward.jp/toyota/coro...year_from=2015

3L/100km, wagon, hybrid. (You can also get with AWD or a normal petrol 1.5 for simplicity's sake) What are the rules on importing them?

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It's interesting that once you get past sales of Hilux, Ranger and Triton, sales numbers of utes
really starts to drop off.That makes me wonder if those other brands will ever be more than
a handful of sales.

In other news, Candy's 1400 odd sales last month seems to be boosted by 50% being hybrids,
so I wonder if thats retail buyers or are taxis and police / govco picking them up?

Hertz are only buying hybrid camrys now.

Bugger all price difference and much better resale.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

Hertz are only buying hybrid camrys now.

Bugger all price difference and much better resale.

It does make more sense than buying an expensive diesel and
paying consistently higher prices for diesel. At least with an
efficient hybrid people can ride the petrol pricing roller coaster
and take advantage of cheaper fuel pricing.

Hybrid looks to be really taking off in RAV4 and Corolla too,
buyers embracing new ways to save fuel and still have petrol.

Ford is missing the boat with expensive PHEV Escape, Europe
still developing diesel Escape/Kuga when yanks have hybrid.
Sometimes being lumped in with RHD UK means we miss out
on Powertrain that suits our market better. It’s the type of thing
that Ford needs to change in production decisions.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It does make more sense than buying an expensive diesel and
paying consistently higher prices for diesel. At least with an
efficient hybrid people can ride the petrol pricing roller coaster
and take advantage of cheaper fuel pricing.

Hybrid looks to be really taking off in RAV4 and Corolla too,
buyers embracing new ways to save fuel and still have petrol.

Ford is missing the boat with expensive PHEV Escape, Europe
still developing diesel Escape/Kuga when yanks have hybrid.
Sometimes being lumped in with RHD UK means we miss out
on Powertrain that suits our market better. It’s the type of thing
that Ford needs to change in production decisions.

It is odd seeing some Euro cities will ban diesel in their precincts before any US city every will.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Question for those Older/knowledgeable:

how do all these months of contraction compare in the car market with the early 1990s? What kind of a fall from the peak was it back then?

The market 'dive' actually only impacted 1991 (although there were other 'bad' periods in the latter 80's) and the drop that one year was a fairly massive 19.07% in the sales we consider to be passenger sales, which include light commercial vehicles but not heavy commercials.

1990 sales were 597,036 while 1991 was 501,423 for a drop of ~95,000 units in volume and it was not until 1994 that the market got back above the 597,000 figure.

The percentage last year was only 8.35% but numerically it was close to 1991 as the drop compared to 2018 was 83,614 units on top of the almost 40,000 unit drop of 2018.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

It is odd seeing some Euro cities will ban diesel in their precincts before any US city every will.

It's like FOE is so committed to diesel that it wasn't prepared to change,
I can understand protecting assets like diesel production but they should
also be embracing the future. The good part is hybrid escape exists and
maybe it's an option that can be added if anti-diesel push back increases.

Continuing on, I think it's time that Ford give up on stuff like 1.5 I-3 Ecoboost
it just doesn't play well at premium prices in our market, better off offering
the 2.5 hybrid instead.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It's like FOE is so committed to diesel that it wasn't prepared to change,
I can understand protecting assets like diesel production but they should
also be embracing the future. The good part is hybrid escape exists and
maybe it's an option that can be added if anti-diesel push back increases.

Continuing on, I think it's time that Ford give up on stuff like 1.5 I-3 Ecoboost
it just doesn't play well at premium prices in our market, better off offering
the 2.5 hybrid instead.

Will take a few years for a change of strategy to flow through. And change really needs to be customer driven. Start giving them hybrid, plug in, ev options and wait to see how the customers react. No point ditching diesels if customers keep buying them. In the end it’s the customer who decides what powertrain they need.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I reckon we'll lose Kenworth in the next 5 years, their build rate keeps dropping.

I doubt that.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Will take a few years for a change of strategy to flow through. And change really needs to be customer driven. Start giving them hybrid, plug in, ev options and wait to see how the customers react. No point ditching diesels if customers keep buying them. In the end it’s the customer who decides what powertrain they need.

Im lead to believe that were only getting Escape with 2.0 EB and the high series PHEV,
not the diesels. Are they're gonna be super expensive compared to RAV4?

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Im lead to believe that were only getting Escape with 2.0 EB and the high series PHEV,
not the diesels. Are they're gonna be super expensive compared to RAV4?

Yeah it’s about 12k extra for phev. Rav4 is 2k. The phev is miles better, uses half the fuel, but buyers will just look at cost and avoid it. Which is a shame cause it’s vastly superior. 1.9 litres per 100 versus 4.6 for the rav 4 hybrid.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Yeah it’s about 12k extra for phev. Rav4 is 2k. The phev is miles better, uses half the fuel, but buyers will just look at cost and avoid it. Which is a shame cause it’s vastly superior. 1.9 litres per 100 versus 4.6 for the rav 4 hybrid.

Worse than that, base RAV4 starts just under $35k while base Escape starts just under $40k
It's the same old pricing problem, only wanting a handful of high profit sales from vehicles intended
for another market.i get it but it's leaving loads of buyers on the table.

[kevino]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I doubt that.

Agree.
I,m in Qld.
Plenty of operators will use Euro s on East Coast linehaul but when it comes to it comes to the bush and west work its KW first daylight second.

Their sales may fall but they will still have a distinct market share plus they are assembling DAF.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by russellw

The market 'dive' actually only impacted 1991 (although there were other 'bad' periods in the latter 80's) and the drop that one year was a fairly massive 19.07% in the sales we consider to be passenger sales, which include light commercial vehicles but not heavy commercials.

1990 sales were 597,036 while 1991 was 501,423 for a drop of ~95,000 units in volume and it was not until 1994 that the market got back above the 597,000 figure.

The percentage last year was only 8.35% but numerically it was close to 1991 as the drop compared to 2018 was 83,614 units on top of the almost 40,000 unit drop of 2018.

Thanks Russ. It was about the worst timing you could have for leaving school into the workforce since the 1930s. But the music was good.

Also meant that really cool things like EBII S-XR6 probably sold in lesser numbers than they should have, despite being the shining light for FOA back then.

Next question: if 2016 was the top, and last year 2019 was -8.35%, have we gone back as far overall as the 1 year 1991 -19.07% did, in the last 3 years from our (incredibly juiced) high sales figures of 2016?