Covid 19 - - Page 533

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 13-10-2021, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

[B]NSW/VIC

VIC records 1,572 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0356 (from 1.0103) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.

image

Hey Russ, I know this may still be early, but I'm wondering what a 4th order poly would look like over that Vic data? Be interesting to see how quickly it would predict a decline in the numbers.

Also, I note that the Reff has dropped below one to 0.99, which is also a good sign.

**russellw** · 13-10-2021, 12:56 PM

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT October 12th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,848 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths so the CMR is 1.112%.

45 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.595%.

The UK had 37,578 cases yesterday and 181 deaths for a CMR of 1.676%.

101,044 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,942 deaths sees CMR at 1.623%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 239M, the last 1M in 3 days;
India passes 34M cases;

Belarus (2,038); and
Romania (16,743)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Georgia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

**russellw** · 13-10-2021, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Hey Russ, I know this may still be early, but I'm wondering what a 4th order poly would look like over that Vic data? Be interesting to see how quickly it would predict a decline in the numbers.

I tried it this morning but it is still showing an upward trend although it peaks at 2,500 cases rather than 3,000 which suggests to me that there isn't enough downward push yet. There is a decline showing in about 6 days time based on the 6th order so there is some hope.

T3rminator · 13-10-2021, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

Geez contact tracers here in Victoria must be under the pump, poor buggers

My daughter was contacted last Friday and told that she (and my grand-daughter) had visited a Tier 1 site on the 30th of September and that they should isolate for 14 days, it was right on when 'they' decided that Tier 2 people didn't need to isolate, so my son-in-law and 2 other kids didn't need to isolate even though they were in the same house. The call came through 8 days after they visited the site!!!!.............

The whole system is under pressure. I thought I heard that contact tracing is no longer the most efficient use of resources, and some of the staff have been moved elsewhere more needed?

One of our work Melb sites had a positive case recently. Took 5 days to confirm, however I think the cause was the first test coming back inconclusive. Odd thing is, once confirmed, the site was not deemed to be Tier 1, so I think even the definition of what is T1 and T2 has been amended. Good thing is, that the person who felt unwell went home straight away on the day. Fortunately, no one else on site that same day has come back positive. So maybe the new definition actually works? Obviously won't be fool proof.

2000 medical workers being recruited from overseas as we speak.

**FTE217** · 13-10-2021, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

I can understand the hesitance for not letting metro Sydney out.

Sure let them mingle together and see what happens first perhaps.

agreed and thats whats doing from this week.
Syd metro residents can head down to the Gong/up to Central Coast and Newy at this stage.
Thats enough for now, at least you can spread your wings a little, better than nothing.
Plus there is plenty you can do in the metro you haven't done the last 106 days to keep you busy for now.

I understand regional areas concerns, especially after Dec 1 going to plan open for all.
Those that don't or haven't complied are maybe covid carriers ascending to their areas, that sucks big time and at the same time will be unfair to us double vaxxed IF anything turns pear shaped for the regionals sure would love that extra income coming back through their local business's once again.

T3rminator · 13-10-2021, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

For any Viccos out there that may not have noticed, there was an update to the Services Vic app yesterday which allows you to upload your Covid-19 Vaccination Certificate to it.....

Signed in for the first time using the app since the update. Nifty little feature.

It automatically flashes your certificate and does a validation. On the confirmation screen, I noticed if you tilt your phone, it mimics those anti fraud hologram shines that you get on ID cards such as your drivers licence. Not sure if its actually functional or just for asthetics.

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 13-10-2021, 03:05 PM

So Tasmania has recorded a new covid case today. Not really anything of significance compared to other states but this one is an interesting story.

Person travelled from Sydney to Hobart, via Melbourne. The traveller did not have appropriate approvals to visit, so would have normally been turned around and sent back, but it was the last flight for the day, so they were placed into quarantine on Monday. A welfare check was conducted yesterday, to find the person gone. Apparently they were found in a northern Hobart suburb.

That person has now been fined for two offences; no valid border pass and breaching quarantine.

Citroënbender · 13-10-2021, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

So Tasmania has recorded a new covid case today. …Apparently they were found in a northern Hobart suburb.

That person has now been fined for two offences; no valid border pass and breaching quarantine.

Found in Chigwell, wearing thongs, no doubt.

Returning to the NSW regional travel “quandary” (my nomination) there’s no change to the roadmap - yet.

Citroënbender · 13-10-2021, 04:47 PM

NSW Tuesday vaccination figures are in, we are fast closing on the 80% target. As of last night 98,1 and 75,5 percent first and second doses respectively. Sydney will be a ghost town on Monday.

Moderators, feel free to combine this post and my preceding.

Trevor 57 · 13-10-2021, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

So Tasmania has recorded a new covid case today. Not really anything of significance compared to other states but this one is an interesting story.

Person travelled from Sydney to Hobart, via Melbourne. The traveller did not have appropriate approvals to visit, so would have normally been turned around and sent back, but it was the last flight for the day, so they were placed into quarantine on Monday. A welfare check was conducted yesterday, to find the person gone. Apparently they were found in a northern Hobart suburb.

That person has now been fined for two offences; no valid border pass and breaching quarantine.

let me guess what age they were . . . . . . . . . . . .

**GasoLane** · 13-10-2021, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

let me guess what age they were . . . . . . . . . . . .

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-...tive/100360152

Trevor 57 · 13-10-2021, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GasoLane

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-...tive/100360152

A COVID-positive 31-year-old NSW man

well well what a surprise - NOT!!!!

slowsnake · 13-10-2021, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

So Tasmania has recorded a new covid case today. Not really anything of significance compared to other states but this one is an interesting story.

Person travelled from Sydney to Hobart, via Melbourne. The traveller did not have appropriate approvals to visit, so would have normally been turned around and sent back, but it was the last flight for the day, so they were placed into quarantine on Monday. A welfare check was conducted yesterday, to find the person gone. Apparently they were found in a northern Hobart suburb.

That person has now been fined for two offences; no valid border pass and breaching quarantine.

And WA wants to open its borders!...dont think so rest of Australia, it only takes one uncaring reprobate to do more damage to WA than Clive Palmer, I reckon these despicable bipeds should be jailed, if they do not put an automatic jail term then it won't stop em!

Also put them into a psych ward and do a bit of testing on their brains, just to determine how they became so uniquely stupid!

Itsme · 13-10-2021, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

A COVID-positive 31-year-old NSW man

well well what a surprise - NOT!!!!

Trevor nothing changed "we all thought we were invincible when we were young" being reckless in our younger days.
History repeating itself.

MITCHAY · 13-10-2021, 06:47 PM

Typical that weather is going to be **** for end of lockdown but I'm going to buy a bottle of champers to celebrate anyways. It might get rowdy this end of town Friday night

ACT vac rates are going to the moon. 98.5% first and 73.5% second 12+ population.

I forgot to mention they were offering walk in service when I got my second at AIS.

MITCHAY · 13-10-2021, 08:58 PM

Word is AZ production is wrapping up by Christmas and the contract unlikely to be extended. No real surprises there.

naddis01 · 13-10-2021, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Most importantly, has Covid vaccination coverage been progressed in the area? Some of the commentary on this felt like spin.

Hot off the press...

Broken Hill - 92.8% First dose and 74.8% second.
Central Darling Shire (Wilcannia, White Cliffs, Menindee, Ivanhoe) - 80.4% and 68.3%
Unincorporated Area (which basically far west NSW surrounding Broken Hill) - 35% and 32%.

So going off those figures yes it appears there is some spin involved other than for Broken Hill itself.

**GO FURTHER** · 13-10-2021, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Signed in for the first time using the app since the update. Nifty little feature.

It automatically flashes your certificate and does a validation. On the confirmation screen, I noticed if you tilt your phone, it mimics those anti fraud hologram shines that you get on ID cards such as your drivers licence. Not sure if its actually functional or just for aesthetics.

Thanks for the info.

I actually downloaded my certificate to the new Services Australia app on my iPhone, and did not notice that effect at first.

It's quite cool watching the emblem move in the background as you tilt the phone.

I also downloaded it from the Medicare Mobile Express app straight into Apple wallet as well, and the certificate looks totally different with a green background to what you get in the Services app?

What I also found, is that if you download your certificate in PDF from Medicare in MyGov, its a secure password protected file that can't be changed or edited for added security when you need to email it (like to your employer, etc).

jaydee · 13-10-2021, 09:44 PM

Those 2 clowns from Melbourne that forged paper work into NT then into WA to get to the Grand Final in Perth have been sentenced.
They've been in custody since a few days after the GF and got 10 months each today.
7 months suspended, so have to do 3, will be in prison for Christmas and New Years.
That'll learn 'em.

ford71V8 · 13-10-2021, 09:50 PM

Good.
Cant believe they were in there celebrating with the team....those photos kinda ticked me off more

T3rminator · 13-10-2021, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Thanks for the info.

I actually downloaded my certificate to the new Services Australia app on my iPhone, and did not notice that effect at first.

It's quite cool watching the emblem move in the background as you tilt the phone.

I also downloaded it from the Medicare Mobile Express app straight into Apple wallet as well, and the certificate looks totally different with a green background to what you get in the Services app?

What I also found, is that if you download your certificate in PDF from Medicare in MyGov, its a secure password protected file that can't be changed or edited for added security when you need to email it (like to your employer, etc).

I believe they want to move away from relying solely on the file certificate (doc with green background) that you download and store on your phone. It'll probably be accepted for a few months only. It is quite easily forged, unless the venue has access to medicare to confirm number, name? Too much overhead when you have people coming and going. Like a waiter can tell what is real or not?

Not a fan of someone else setting a password that you can't change. When you start sharing it, you will need to give people your password, and since you can't change it, more and more people will know that one password. The PDF won't last long as a valid doc I don't think.

The app is the way to go. By loading it into the Services app, the validation is done once when loaded, so venues can trust the app rather than the certificate itself. I guess someone can always hack the app, so it then becomes a cat and mouse game, dev security updates vs hackers finding exploits.

Its all sounding a bit orwellian, but I am going to say, at some stage in the future, you will swipe your phone as you enter venues, and a machine will read the services app and alert someone if it fails. No human will need to visually inspect every phone and judge whether the doc is genuine or not.

The other possibility is, the virus eventually dies down and becomes less potent, and just becomes the common flu....then hopefully we can do away with all this in a few years time.

Jack91 · 13-10-2021, 10:56 PM

Apprentice gave me a lift to the 2nd shot and we both got it at exactly the same time and place. We are similar builds, very similar diets, only a couple of years age difference.
Both off sick for 2 days.
Stomach cramps, vomiting, coughing, headaches, on and off fevers for 30ish hours and generally feeling hit by a semi. The fever I had last night was as bad as the last flu I had.
So I don't think the side effects are as rare as they advertise, or as hit and miss.
Both also had 0 reaction to the first shot.
So yeah if you're about to get your second don't be surprised if it hits you like a tonne of bricks.
And don't even bother with the Panadol and Nurofen, they didnt even touch it.

ford71V8 · 14-10-2021, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack91

Apprentice gave me a lift to the 2nd shot and we both got it at exactly the same time and place. We are similar builds, very similar diets, only a couple of years age difference.
Both off sick for 2 days.
Stomach cramps, vomiting, coughing, headaches, on and off fevers for 30ish hours and generally feeling hit by a semi. The fever I had last night was as bad as the last flu I had.
So I don't think the side effects are as rare as they advertise, or as hit and miss.
Both also had 0 reaction to the first shot.
So yeah if you're about to get your second don't be surprised if it hits you like a tonne of bricks.
And don't even bother with the Panadol and Nurofen, they didnt even touch it.

Pfixxer / Astra-z / Modernlove ?

oldel · 14-10-2021, 01:14 AM

With pfizer I was just stuffed up and dizzy in the head for a few days after the second jab. Really strange feeling that was disconcerting.

But anyway, nothing of value was lost, I'm always f'ed up in the head anyway due to drinking, but now I get headaches after coffee now too.
I got the vaxx after a really bad flu, and had a terrible cold after it as well.

Don't socialise with teachers or childcare workers. My ex is one and my kids always sick (misses 2-3 weeks per semester) and always giving some bug to me too. Both my kid and me spent most of this winter sick because bugs were around big time in open non covid restricted WA (borders aren't so locked up secure really despite what NSW and palmer says, lots of lurgeys got in.)

Trevor 57 · 14-10-2021, 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itsme

Trevor nothing changed "we all thought we were invincible when we were young" being reckless in our younger days.
History repeating itself.

but we were NEVER this selfish

"**** everyone, I am OK" seems to be the attitude these days

**Charliewool** · 14-10-2021, 05:20 AM

We also never experienced a “pandemic” or locked up in our own homes back then either?
I remember as a naughty kid getting a weeks “number 11” which was Dadspeak for confined to quarters (he was an old sailer)
Still managed to slip out!
What hope during these 100s of days of lockdowns?

Citroënbender · 14-10-2021, 05:49 AM

Indeed - I can only imagine what “Bon Scott vs Lockdown” would have looked like.

Aside from that, one bit of Covid-safe madness I was told of yesterday (by the person to whom it happened). Young fellow, first baby well on the way after a couple of missteps, was barred from a routine ultrasound for some notion of Covid safety. Given that he lives intimately with his pregnant wife - what was the logic in excluding him from this?

Trevor 57 · 14-10-2021, 06:54 AM

People over-reach for no particular logical reason. I work in OHS and I see it nearly every day

slowsnake · 14-10-2021, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

but we were NEVER this selfish

"**** everyone, I am OK" seems to be the attitude these days

You are right Trev, in fact I was or never have been selfish!
These idiots are from the pampered 80's and 90's, everything is easy to find out now, mainly due to the internet and mobile phones, take them away and they don't know what to do, how to interact or socialise, they believe what they see on their damn iPhones, always forgetting that they leave an electronic trace behind, I hope they jail the Tassie dude, stuff em!

slowsnake · 14-10-2021, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charliewool

We also never experienced a “pandemic” or locked up in our own homes back then either?
I remember as a naughty kid getting a weeks “number 11” which was Dadspeak for confined to quarters (he was an old sailer)
Still managed to slip out!
What hope during these 100s of days of lockdowns?

Ha, a week eh, lol, mine were 12 months, home from school, bedroom and if my brothers had mates in, back to bedroom, 4 hours church every Sunday, 10 till noon and 6 till 8pm. No TV or radio, just school and church, that was turned into an advantage too, I was smarter than anyone if it came to being cunning, even skimming 5 bob out of the collection plate, morning and evening service, bought ciggies for the week, sold on at school, nice profit, first thing I bought was food, always hungry, then ciggies, that was worse than today's lockdown!