Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 18th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

129 new cases for Australia and 1 death so the CMR is 2.865%.

11 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.924%.

The UK had a lower 47,599 cases yesterday and lower 25 deaths for a CMR of 2.369%.

A lower 24,081 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 113 deaths sees CMR at 1.787%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global deaths pass 4.1M, the last 50k in 6 days;
Global cases pass 191M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Asia passes 59M cases;

Laos (131);
Isle of Man (233);
Senegal (1,722);
Rwanda (2,773) - 800 more than the high yesterday;
Vietnam (5,926) - 2k more than the high yesterday; and
Thailand (11,397)

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Europe Review

The last 10 days have highlighted some countries where case numbers per 100k of population have increased substantially including: Malta (370), Portugal (396), Spain (551), Netherlands (587) and the United Kingdom (746)

Below are the trend graphs for Europe with the first group (those with the highest case numbers) all heading in the wrong direction again.



A mixed set of results in the next group with most trending upward except the Ukraine and Germany.



Similarly this next group (which had been in decline) are mostly trending upwards again.



The next group are also trending upward except Belarus and Denmark.



Likewise, all of the smallest case group are trending upward except for Lativa.



... and some individual country graphs:

[T3rminator]

Source of the leak to tiktok man has been busted. I'm guessing they used the good old Tyrion Lanister, Game of Thrones, trickery!

Originally Posted by cs123

IMO it's a pretty dangerous time as people can be infectious without any symptoms and can easily spread it.

Agree 1000%. There needs to be a plan to vaccinate all states at around the same rate before opening up. We can't have one state opening up faster, putting everyone else at risk.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Source of the leak to tiktok man has been busted. I'm guessing they used the good old Tyrion Lanister, Game of Thrones, trickery!



Agree 1000%. There needs to be a plan to vaccinate all states at around the same rate before opening up. We can't have one state opening up faster, putting everyone else at risk.

Well I say Valar morghulis to that!!!!!

6 States are following the plan to a certain extent, with between 40 and 52% total shots compared to total population.

1 state isn't, no prize for guessing which state thinks locking everyone out is the answer. 27% for them. So I say let them keep digging their iron ore and McGowan can sit on his iron throne worried about walkers from East of the wall. In the rest of the country, if you cant get Pfizer, see your GP and get AZ!! Or stay at home for the long winter.

Shameless multiple Game of Thrones references in my open up when the rest of the country is at 70% opinion.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Source of the leak to tiktok man has been busted. I'm guessing they used the good old Tyrion Lanister, Game of Thrones, trickery!

Oh do tell! I have been away from the wireless all day.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Oh do tell! I have been away from the wireless all day.

After 5 successful "calculations" in a row, he got today wrong. He called 105, but today was 98. I didn't watch the presser, but workmate told me NSW Health was asked if there was a sting set up to catch the leak. NSW Health denied there was one set up. There has been lots of rumours swirling around the use of tiktok guy. Some even linked him with GB, suggesting it was a way to soften the blow of the message, or to take attention away from the current crisis i.e. get everyone talking about tiktok guy rather than the case numbers. Some say he has been using the CovidSafe app which provides some details that you can use to calculate the numbers. All rumours and conjecture with no evidence.

Anyhow, he is now claiming that the numbers published today by NSW Health are "incorrect" and has been deliberately changed to discredit him. Sounds like a looney?

My theory - they fed a bunch of suspected leakers with different incorrect numbers. So when tiktok guy published 105, they know who leaked it to him. The Tyrion Lanister trick!

[Citroënbender]

A bit sad that catching the leaker is more important than many other jobs for the incumbents.

And it looks like the “hang ‘em high” crowds calling for blood of the infamous Molong removalists, have one corpse as a consequence. Also a bit sad.

[russellw]

Asia

Likewise, some countries case numbers per 100k of population have increased substantially including: Thailand (165), Iran (310), Malaysia (412), Kuwait (528), Bangladesh (948) and Cyprus (1,068).

The trends show very mixed results. Amongst the largest group, I've actually taken Indonesia out of the graph as the trend is so steeply high that it makes the rest hard to see but the remainder are mostly trending downward except for Bangladesh.



The next group are also all downward trending apart from Kazakhstan:



.. and a similar story for the smallest group with only the UAE and Kyrgyzstan trending upward.



Individual countries:

[Trevor 57]

https://youtu.be/gE0Xf3cHJ58

[russellw]

Africa

The last 10 days have highlighted some countries where case numbers per 100k of population have increased substantially including: Libya (361), South Africa (401), Namibia (684) and Tunisia (862)

Below are the trend graphs for Africa with the first group (those with the highest case numbers) both heading in the wrong direction again.



The remaining group is a mixed bag with mostly upward trends except for Ethiopia and Kenya.



Individual countries:

[Citroënbender]

I read today, that it’s being implied one target of the NSW Government’s current restrictions is to achieve a vaccination rate of 80% or greater. I don’t know if that’s of gross population or eligible adults. Either way, it’s - as Sir Humphrey once said “courageous”.

[russellw]

Miscellaneous

The global CMR is up slightly this last fortnight to 2.147%, with 82 countries having worsened CMRs during the last fortnight.

In total 219 countries have now had at least one case and only 13 of those haven't had a fatality while 33 countries have a CMR over 3%, led by Peru with 9.034%.

9 countries have less than 10 cases per 100k of population but they are mostly tiny island nations while 147 countries have more than 500 cases / 100k of population with Bahrain (15,742), Czechia (15,603) and Montenegro (16,207) leading the way amongst the more populated countries. There are several others over 10k/100k including Lithuania (10,276), the Netherlands (10,496), the USA (10,562),Argentina (10,524), Aruba (10,518), Sweden (10,835), Uruguay (10,906), Luxembourg (11,623), Slovenia (12,419) and the Maldives ( 14,037) - only counting countries with more than 1M of population.

39 countries have less than 2 deaths per 100k of population while 89 countries have more than 50 deaths per 100k, led by: Peru (591), Hungary (310), Bosnia (294), Czechia (283), North Macedonia (263), Bulgaria (261), Montenegro (258), Brazil (255), Slovakia (229), Colombia (228), Argentina (224), Belgium (217), Slovenia (212), Italy (211) and Croatia (200).

[b0son]

Why would anyone believe anything other than it being leaked? The formulas/diagrams he had on his whiteboard didnt even correspond to anything that could plausibly be linked to a case count calculation. It just looked something he got off a scene from Good Will Hunting.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

South Aus joining NSW and Vic by introducing Level 4 restrictions (not a lockdown).

[LG17]

I'm over all the blaming of different states and Commonwealth.
It doesn't help the situation at all.
All I want is the Commonwealth, states and territories to work together and find a workable solution.
No one of them is to take the credit. It should just be a collective agreement.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by LG17

I'm over all the blaming of different states and Commonwealth.
It doesn't help the situation at all.
All I want is the Commonwealth, states and territories to work together and find a workable solution.
No one of them is to take the credit. It should just be a collective agreement.

spot on and thats what should be discussed not bringing up a politcal slanging match due to differing opinions and agendas for thats what would happen.
They ALL have failed (mind you who read the rule book/instruction manual how to deal with a covid19 in 2020) let alone its showing up the constitution is out of date under National attack, be it a germ let alone imagine a proper ol school land invasion.
We'd be stuffed.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by FTE217

let alone its showing up the constitution is out of date

I am not sure about that, I think the Constitution is fine the way it is - do you want the Feds to over-rule the States? Really?

It has highlighted to the uneducated about how our Constitution works - my kids thought that the Feds ruled over the States, this has certainly educated them on how it really works and on some issues where the power sits and that education is a good thing

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

I am not sure about that, I think the Constitution is fine the way it is - do you want the Feds to over-rule the States? Really?

It has highlighted to the uneducated about how our Constitution works - my kids thought that the Feds ruled over the States, this has certainly educated them on how it really works and on some issues where the power sits and that education is a good thing

yep, under a National crisis situation/s yes, obviously dialog would be with all Prems and specific needed authorities involved but having one do this one do that coming up with similar F ups, blame them, oh thats their prob, the school yard belittling supported by rank and file either side has done us no favours in the big picture, caused divide more than anything.
No its not fine the way it is under these circumstances but I degress.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by FTE217

yep, under a National crisis situation/s yes, obviously dialog would be with all Prems and specific needed authorities involved but having one do this one do that coming up with similar F ups, blame them, oh thats their prob, the school yard belittling supported by rank and file either side has done us no favours in the big picture, caused divide more than anything.
No its not fine the way it is under these circumstances but I degress.

I could go on about the reasons it should stay the same, but the main one, which is true for this pandemic is that the Feds reacted far too slow and forced the States to react and I am glad they did, I wouldn't want to change

[T3rminator]

Does anyone know who makes the testing kits and how much it costs per test? And who is doing the analysis and how much does that cost per test? Just curious about the money flow.

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

I am not sure about that, I think the Constitution is fine the way it is - do you want the Feds to over-rule the States? Really?

It has highlighted to the uneducated about how our Constitution works - my kids thought that the Feds ruled over the States, this has certainly educated them on how it really works and on some issues where the power sits and that education is a good thing

Constitution was updated after the last pandemic, was followed in the first shipment of overseas citizens and residents, but then delegated?

Just my opinion only, but in terms of cases and deaths, I reckon the federated model saved our bacon. We were headed down the US, UK, Brazil strategy at the beginning. Remember the first outbreak? "Go Sharkies!"

UK and US only looking better now because of their vaccination roll out.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Constitution was updated after the last pandemic, was followed in the first shipment of overseas citizens and residents, but then delegated?

Just my opinion only, but in terms of cases and deaths, I reckon the federated model saved our bacon. We were headed down the US, UK, Brazil strategy at the beginning. Remember the first outbreak? "Go Sharkies!"

UK and US only looking better now because of their vaccination roll out.

very good point, but I thought the first outbreak where it spread right across Australia was the Ruby Princess (and which State was that again?)

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by LG17

I'm over all the blaming of different states and Commonwealth.
It doesn't help the situation at all.
All I want is the Commonwealth, states and territories to work together and find a workable solution.
No one of them is to take the credit. It should just be a collective agreement.

We should all move to the "Big Rock Candy Mountain" then!...its a brilliant fantastical world conjured up by an American musician named Harry McClintock, way back in the 1920's...must of had similar issues then too!


Cheers Billy

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Thought this may be of interest to a few on here.

I text my running partner yesterday to see how she was going. she called me back, which usually means something is up. She tells me she is in covid iso. Turns out that the guy I bought my house from was at the rugby game at AAMI Park where a positive case was. As he was in the same area as that case, he is a Tier 1 exposure and is now in 14 day isolation.

My running partner runs the local hockey club's canteen. the guy I bought the house form is a club and committee member of that hockey club and they shared the same space before lockdown occurred.

She is a child carer and has nine separate families access her house every week, so, as a precaution, she's put herself into isolation and got a covid test. Whilst at the hospital, they told her she needed to isolate until the test result came back. But, her isolation does not include isolation from her family. Her hubby is the electrician at the hospital.

So, he interacts with her at home, then heads off to work where he interacts with workers at the hospital. Where, if she turns out to be positive, he has been exposed and then potentially exposed those at the hospital.

Not really isolating then!

And she has not been contacted buy anyone from the government identifying her as a contact of a contact.

Does make you wonder.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Thought this may be of interest to a few on here.

I text my running partner yesterday to see how she was going. she called me back, which usually means something is up. She tells me she is in covid iso. Turns out that the guy I bought my house from was at the rugby game at AAMI Park where a positive case was. As he was in the same area as that case, he is a Tier 1 exposure and is now in 14 day isolation.

My running partner runs the local hockey club's canteen. the guy I bought the house form is a club and committee member of that hockey club and they shared the same space before lockdown occurred.

She is a child carer and has nine separate families access her house every week, so, as a precaution, she's put herself into isolation and got a covid test. Whilst at the hospital, they told her she needed to isolate until the test result came back. But, her isolation does not include isolation from her family. Her hubby is the electrician at the hospital.

So, he interacts with her at home, then heads off to work where he interacts with workers at the hospital. Where, if she turns out to be positive, he has been exposed and then potentially exposed those at the hospital.

Not really isolating then!

And she has not been contacted buy anyone from the government identifying her as a contact of a contact.

Does make you wonder.

Just shows how bloody hard it is to catch every combination of close contacts in a timely manner. Did she have to QR in at the canteen? Did the guy provide all the names to the contact tracing team accurately and timely?

I think there are 14,000 or so close contacts in iso. Imagine having to ring every one of them up and then interview and track down every single one of their contacts. This outbreak only started a week ago.

Had my 2nd jab this morning, at the entrance they flashed up all the suburbs that had been listed as exposure sites and then a lady asked "have you been to any of these areas" The list basically covered all of metro melb, but fortunately it didn't list my home suburb.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

She is a child carer and has nine separate families access her house every week, so, as a precaution, she's put herself into isolation

my wife does the same work and is notifying her parents as I type this that her self isolation will continue this week due to Victoria's decision to extend the lock-down for another 7 days

We live regionally and she is immune suppressed, she has had both shots of AZ but could still get very crook if she contracted it. Vic Gvmt is saying that as a result of that AFL match they know people have returned to locations right across regional Vict, so my wife is taking no chances.

Some parents are not as responsible as others and travel to hotspots without a 2nd thought

[Yellow_Festiva]

I think we will need to face the reality that soon enough EVERY one of us will get Covid.

Looking at what has happened in the UK, Israel, USA, Canada, Germany etc

All around or past 50% vaccination. All with large numbers being found every day.

Daily numbers in the hundreds or thousands. They had a great head start, they had a far greater infection rate pre vaccination (population with possibly more natural immunity?) yet they have faced the reality that total eradication is never going to happen.

Singapore no longer lists new Covid cases apparently, but rather deaths - makes sense seeing as the numbers alone play mind games and cause unnecessary fear and social tension.

Our government is striving for an impossible target, perhaps they are trying to save face after their recent fall from grace. Who the hell knows?

Continual lock downs, population control and 'expert advice' has caused nothing but personal and financial destruction to a huge percentage of our population.

I hate to say it but this madness has to stop before we are already more rooted than we already are.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Singapore no longer lists new Covid cases apparently, but rather deaths - makes sense seeing as the numbers alone play mind games and cause unnecessary fear and social tension.

I like that thinking

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I hate to say it but this madness has to stop before we are already more rooted than we already are.

I agree

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Singapore no longer lists new Covid cases apparently, but rather deaths - makes sense seeing as the numbers alone play mind games and cause unnecessary fear and social tension.

I was going to mention the other day that eventually, once we achieve sufficient levels of vaccination, we'll let Covid do it's thing and run through our community and recording of cases will not mean a lot. Not dissimilar to influenza. However, I did a bit of research and see that the medical community still record the number of positive influenza cases, so didn't post anything.

But, I do see a point in time where the medical community may still record the number of Covid infections, but both the general community and the media will lose interest in it, as it probably has little relevance for the average person.

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Our government is striving for an impossible target, perhaps they are trying to save face after their recent fall from grace. Who the hell knows?

Continual lock downs, population control and 'expert advice' has caused nothing but personal and financial destruction to a huge percentage of our population.

I hate to say it but this madness has to stop before we are already more rooted than we already are.

If we had a sufficient level of vaccination, then I'd agree with the above completely. But whilst our vaccination rates are so low and the potential impact upon our hospital capacity and death rates are high, I don't see that we have much other choice. Lockdowns, financial, social and mental health impacts may not be pleasant, but I think things would be far worse if we were to allow the virus to run rampant with such low vaccination rates as we have atm.

On another note, I see that Queensland has recorded one locally acquired case today. A female who studies in Melbourne. Of most concern, she was in the community whilst infectious. This has the potential to gather momentum for Queensland.

E: Interesting to hear that she was fully vaccinated with Pfizer, too.
2E: And visited Cairns and dined out in Mooloolaba whilst infectious.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 19th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

116 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR is 2.855%.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.923%.

The UK had a lower 39,538 cases yesterday and lower 19 deaths for a CMR of 2.352%.

A higher 37,149 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 137 deaths sees CMR at 1.786%.

Other notable points:
The USA passes 35M cases;

Isle of Man (238);
Libya (3,425);
Iraq (9,883); and
Thailand (11,784)

... all recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Costa Rica drops below.

[FTE217]

no worries Trev, I'd love to but we'd be going against party rules

By the way re Gladys hoody, FYI its damn cold here, single digits overnight and just over 10 through the days, thats effin cold for us. Don't think its hiding one bit but you quote otherwise
I'm more surprised no evidence of a mask between "sips"......